Showers and thunderstorms have affected North Alabama for much of the day, but they are gradually moving out of the area this afternoon. There were several reports of small hail across the area, especially in parts of Marion, Lawrence, Limestone, and Madison counties. Most of the hail was below “severe criteria” of 1.00″ in diameter.
 
Showers will taper off this evening, and much cooler air will invade North Alabama tonight, with lows overnight falling to around 30.
 
There may be enough residual moisture early Wednesday morning for a snow flurry, but it is unlikely, and will not be a big deal either way. Sky becomes mostly sunny on Wednesday with a high in the upper 40s to around 50.
 
WARMING TREND: Temperatures will be heading up through the weekend. Thursday & Friday will feature chilly mornings in the upper 20s/low 30s, but Thursday afternoon highs will reach the upper 50s, with low 60s on Friday.
 
The weekend looks great – both Saturday and Sunday, although clouds will be increasing by Sunday. Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s!
 
Next chance for rain comes Monday with cooler air arriving by the middle of next week.

Still many hours away from thunderstorms reaching North Alabama, however watching very closely as the storm system develops to our west.
 
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that a Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, including parts of NE Louisiana, SE Arkansas, Western Mississippi.
 

 
Monitoring closely the developing thunderstorms currently over northern Louisiana. These could intensify as they lift north-northeastward into SE Arkansas, West Mississippi over the next couple of hours:
 

 
Check back for more updates!
 
For more frequent updates, be sure to follow @northalwx on Twitter!

It’s quiet across North Alabama this afternoon. A mostly cloudy, but warm day with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s. A few peeks of sunshine are possible this afternoon west of I-65. Low clouds have been hanging tough over areas east of I-65 in Northeast Alabama, holding temperatures near 60 so far today.
 
Little to no precipitation expected today or this evening, nothing more than a brief passing light shower. Temperatures through tonight will hold steady between 65-70 or so.
 
Below is the latest severe weather outlook (click for larger image) from the Storm Prediction Center:
 

 
Thunderstorms will approach NW Alabama after midnight, eventually spreading eastward over the rest of North Alabama into Wednesday morning. Here is the current thinking…
 
TIMING: Thunderstorms will move into NW Alabama after midnight (perhaps 1-3am) and will exit Northeast Alabama by around 10-11am Wednesday morning.
 
MAIN THREAT: The main threat with severe thunderstorms tonight will be strong damaging straight-line wind gusts – in excess of 70mph in some instances. There is also a tornado potential, especially if thunderstorms are able to form ahead of the squall line. The tornado potential is a little greater over North Mississippi and perhaps areas over extreme West Alabama near the Mississippi state line.
 
BOTTOM LINE: No, not everyone will see severe weather at their particular location – however, severe thunderstorms are a possibility over the entire area. The threat is a little greater west of I-65, and especially near the Mississippi state line. However, everyone should be aware and prepared for the RISK and have a way to receive the latest weather warnings issued overnight. Have a way to receive those warnings while you are sleeping. THIS IS NOT a day where we will see multiple tornadoes on the ground, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
 
Once the thunderstorms move out Wednesday morning, cooler air will filter into the area – temps falling into the 50s Wednesday afternoon, 40s by Wednesday evening. Winds will continue to be very gusty out of the northwest into Wednesday night.
 
Thursday and Friday will be sunny and cool with highs 45-50, morning lows 25-30.
 
THE WEEKEND: Small risk of a few light showers on Saturday, otherwise the weekend will be mainly dry with highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s.
 
For frequent updates on North Alabama Weather, follow @northalwx on Twitter!

A southerly breeze will bring warmer, more moist air into North Alabama over the next 24-36 hours ahead of a developing storm system. This is a system we will be watching carefully over the next day or so as it will likely impact North Alabama with strong to severe thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
 
For now though, it is a quiet Monday across North Alabama. Quite a bit of cloud-cover, but very little precipitation – only a few spotty light sprinkles here and there. A few breaks in the clouds are allowing some peeks of sunshine in some areas, aiding temps in warming through the 60s. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s depending on how much sunshine you see at your particular location.
 
Things remain quiet into tonight and Tuesday – no thunderstorms, no severe weather yet. Temperatures tonight will not fall very much overnight due to a southerly wind bringing in warmer, moist air. Overnight lows in the mid 50s.
 
Tuesday will be warmer, with a few peeks of sunshine through the clouds at times. Any light rain showers/sprinkles will be brief. Most will reach the 70 degree mark with some mid 70s possible west of I-65.
 
Severe thunderstorms will begin to develop to our west on Tuesday over parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana… eventually moving into the Mississippi Delta region Tuesday night.
 
TIMING: Arrival of the severe storms, likely in the form of squall line is expected AFTER 2:00am Wednesday morning, and spread eastward across North Alabama during the morning hours on Wednesday. Exact timing is difficult to nail down at this point, but we will know more details concerning this tomorrow.
 
MAIN THREATS: This system will have plenty of wind energy to work with, and damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. However, there is still a tornado potential within the line or with any storms that develop ahead of the squall line. But again, the main threat will be damaging straight-line wind gusts. Storms will be very fast moving in excess of 50-60mph.
 
The system will exit the area by Wednesday afternoon – followed by a rush of much cooler air. There will be no further threat of severe weather.
 
Much cooler conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend as well with highs generally in the 40s, and lows generally in the 20s Thursday through Sunday.

Confidence increasing that precipitation will fall as mainly rain for areas west of I-65 on Friday morning. There is still the potential for a period of freezing rain east of I-65, especially in higher elevations of Jackson, Dekalb Counties.
 
There will be the potential for some slick spots on bridges/overpasses east of I-65, as well as some roadways in the higher elevations. So it will be a good idea to use caution when traveling early Friday, especially over Northeast Alabama.
 
However, even where freezing rain is occurring Friday morning – temperatures will warm ABOVE freezing by midday and this will end any ice issues.
 
Here is an updated map outlining the potential for freezing rain across North Alabama Friday morning:
 

Sun has returned to North Alabama on this Thursday afternoon, but a brisk north wind is making for chilly conditions with temps generally in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Despite the chilly conditions, it will be a pretty nice evening with a mostly sunny sky and dry conditions.
 
A developing storm system over the Southern Plains will move east tonight and bring a chance for rain and/or freezing rain to portions of North Alabama after midnight tonight into early Friday morning. Precipitation could begin as early as 2-3am over Northwest Alabama, around 6:00am for Northeast Alabama. The best chance for freezing rain exists EAST of I-65, especially over portions of Dekalb and Jackson counties.
 
Even where freezing rain and ice accumulations occur, temperatures are expected to warm ABOVE freezing by midday on Friday across North Alabama, ending the threat for icy conditions. For most of North Alabama though, temps will be above freezing much earlier than that.
 
For the Huntsville area westward, including all areas along/west of I-65, this is expected to be a very minor and short-term inconvenience at worst. Any ice accumulations here will only be on elevated surfaces such as trees.
 
BOTTOM LINE: For the majority of North Alabama, roadways will be just wet on Friday morning. Be cautious of slick spots on bridges/overpasses early Friday morning. However, Slick spots cannot be ruled out on roadways in NE Alabama including Dekalb and Jackson counties up until around noon.
 
Here is a map showing the BEST potential for freezing rain and ice accumulation Friday morning:
 

 
Below are some images of surface temperatures as forecast by one of many computer models for various times on Friday…
 
6AM Friday:
 

 
9AM Friday:
 

 
NOON Friday:
 

 
3PM Friday:
 

 
Computer models do not tend to handle shallow cold air (like we will see Friday) very well, so those temperatures could still be a couple of degrees too warm. However, temperatures will warm during the morning hours above freezing for all except extreme NE Alabama.
 
Rain will end Friday evening, and Friday night will be rather cold with overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 20s.
 
THE WEEKEND: The weekend looks mainly sunny and dry, there could be an increase in cloud-cover on Sunday but a warming trend will begin. Afternoon highs in the upper 40s to near 50 on Saturday, with mid 50s on Sunday afternoon. Morning lows 25-30.
 
A brief shower is possible on Monday as warmer, and more moist air begins to move into North Alabama from the south. Monday afternoon will be much warmer with highs in the low/mid 60s. A strong storm system will bring our next chance for rain and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Turned out to be a pretty decent Wednesday afternoon across North Alabama with high temps officially 57 at Huntsville, 58 at Muscle Shoals. Clouds have now moved back into North Alabama tonight.
 
A cold front will move through the area after midnight. There will not be much moisture for this system to work with, but light rain showers will be possible into early Thursday morning. There is also some potential for a changeover to light freezing rain before the precip ends Thursday morning.
 
For now, precipitation amounts are not expected to be enough to cause significant issues. However, can’t rule out a few slick spots on bridges or overpasses, so just take it easy Thursday morning.
 
Should see some clearing and some sunshine by Thursday afternoon, but temperatures will be cold with highs only in the upper 30s/lower 40s and a brisk north wind.
 
Another system will move into the area late Thursday night into early Friday and will bring a slightly better potential for some freezing rain between midnight and 7am Friday. Cannot rule out some light ice accumulations, particularly on trees and other elevated surfaces – mainly EAST of I-65.
 
Slick spots will be possible on area roadways (mainly bridges/overpasses) very early Friday morning. However, a southerly wind should help temperatures warm above freezing by at least mid-morning on Friday – thus ending any threat for frozen precipitation.
 
Saturday will be cold, but sunshine returns. Morning lows in the mid/upper 20s. Afternoon highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
 
Sunday/Monday afternoons will feature high temps returning into the low/mid 50s. Morning lows 25-30.
 
Warm-up continues into Tuesday ahead of another storm system that will bring a risk for showers and thunderstorms into the area late Tuesday or Wednesday. NO winter weather setup this time!

The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of North-Central and Northeast Alabama on Thursday. This includes the following counties: Cullman, Dekalb, Jackson, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Marshall, and Morgan.
 
As a strong upper level passes through the region, it will bring with it the potential for rain changing to snow Thursday morning. Accumulations are possible, mainly in grassy areas. Accumulations of 1-3″ are possible, 2-4″ in the higher elevations of Northeast Alabama.
 
Expect roads to be mainly wet during the day on Thursday, but as colder air arrives Thursday night, any remaining moisture on area roadways may freeze – especially on bridges and overpasses. Use caution when traveling Thursday night.
 
For now, the Winter Storm Watch does NOT include Lauderdale, Colbert, and Franklin counties in the Shoals area. Light snow is possible in the Shoals, but the current thinking is that it will likely not be enough to produce any significant accumulation.
 
With upper level lows there are usually some surprises, so check in for any possible adjustments to the forecast over the next 12 hours or so.
 
Below is a map indicating the most likely areas for significant snowfall accumulation on Thursday. This does not nessacarily indicate totals – just the overall potential for accumulation. Expecting accumulations ranging from a dusting to 3″. However, isolated higher amounts of 4-5″ are possible over extreme NE Alabama (i.e. Dekalb, Cherokee counties).
 

Most of the precipitation has shifted east of I-65 at 7:30pm. Freezing rain is still occurring in portions of Madison, Morgan, Cullman counties – elsewhere it is mainly falling as rain (except for higher elevations).
 
The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded earlier this evening and now includes Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Morgan, and Cullman counties until 9:00am Tuesday.
 
While light accumulations will be likely on trees, power lines, cars, and other elevated surfaces – travel issues are expected to be relatively isolated. The most troublesome areas will be bridges and overpasses overnight. The best chance for icing will be in the highest elevations and areas west of a line from Huntsville to Cullman (i.e. The Shoals, Athens, Moulton)
 
Temperatures across the area at 7:00pm include:
 
37 at Scottsboro, Fort Payne
34 at Muscle Shoals, Courtland, Meridianville
33 at Decatur, Hartselle
32 at Cullman, Florence
30 at Haleyville
 
Another area of rain/freezing rain is expected to impact North Alabama late tonight and into Tuesday morning which could result in additional ice accumulations, mainly over Northwest Alabama and the Shoals area. Again, accumulations mainly on elevated surfaces such as trees, power lines.
 
Any freezing rain is expected to change to ALL rain by mid-morning Tuesday. Heaviest precipitation should taper off by Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. A few light showers are still possible on Wednesday before the next system affects the area by Thursday…
 
ANOTHER WINTRY THREAT THURSDAY?: Another potential for wintry weather will come on Thursday as a strong upper level disturbance moves near the area. The EXACT track of this system will determine exactly who will see what in terms of rain versus snow, as well as accumulation potential. For now, guidance seems to favor accumulations to our north and west over parts of North Mississippi and Tennessee.
 
HOWEVER, only very small changes in the overall setup could result in major changes in the track of this system. Upper level lows are notoriously difficult to forecast, so this will be something to watch carefully over the next 24-36 hours.

Heavy rain has fallen for much of the day across North Alabama. It has been a very cold rain as well with temperatures generally in the 30s this afternoon (except for low/mid 40s over NE Alabama).
 
Due to some of the colder temperatures over NW Alabama, there have been several reports of sleet and freezing rain in portions of Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, and Limestone counties. There have been reports of minor ice accumulations mainly on trees and elevated surfaces.
 
**Winter Weather Advisory until 9:00am Tuesday for: Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, Limestone Counties**
 
So far, there have been no reports of travel issues as the roads have remained just wet due to the warm ground temperatures and air temperatures still very borderline right around the freezing mark.
 
However, after sunset tonight there is definitely the potential for a few slick spots on roadways – especially bridges and overpasses. The highest potential for this will be over Northwest Alabama.
 
While major icing is not expected at this time, it does not take much ice to cause dangerous driving conditions. Avoid traveling tonight if it is not necessary over Northwest Alabama.
 
Temmperatures will generally remain steady overnight between 30-35. There will be continued potential for some freezing rain (again, mainly Northwest Alabama) into Tuesday morning – however temperatures will warm ABOVE freezing by mid-morning and this should end the threat for wintry precipitation. The heaviest precitipation should taper off by Tuesday night.
 
BOTTOM LINE: The highest potential for ice accumulation is over parts of Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Limestone, Lawrence Counties including cities such as Florence, Muscle Shoals, Athens, Russellville, Moulton, etc. Major icing not expected, but some ice will accumulate mainly on cars, decks, trees, other elevated surfaces. While many roads will just be wet, slick spots will likely develop on bridges and overpasses.