North Alabama Weather Blog
Weather Information and Forecasts for the North Alabama Area
Jun
20.
: Posted: 10:08 am
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Category: Forecasts

Typical summer-time weather is upon us. Over the next week or so, there will be very little day to day changes in our weather conditions. Each day will generally feature high temperatures in the lower 90s, morning lows in the upper 60s to near 70, and a daily risk for afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms.
 
Keep in mind when interpreting forecasts during the summer in Alabama. A 20% chance for rain does NOT mean rain will be light. A 20% chance for rain is the common forecast throughout our summers. On a typical afternoon, pop-up showers and thunderstorms will develop but only affect about 10-20% of the land area. Obviously, common sense says that the chance of rain has to be either 100% or 0% to be correct – but it is simply IMPOSSIBLE to pinpoint where EXACTLY these thunderstorms will develop on any given afternoon. We are left with the dilemma of using POP (or “chance of rain”) to give you a relative risk of rain at your location.
 
Having said there, here’s how the next several days look across North Alabama…
 
TODAY: Mostly sunny and hot with high temperatures in the lower 90s. Isolated showers or thunderstorms will begin to develop mainly after 2:00pm. However, they will only affect a small percentage of the area. Risk of rain at any one point is only about 1 in 5. Any showers that develop will be gone by 9:00pm as temperatures cool. Even where showers do occur they will typically last 30 min. to 1 hour at the most.
 
FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Very similar conditions continue on Friday and Saturday. Mostly sunny conditions with afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s. Morning lows 65-70. Again, isolated showers/thunderstorms will develop, mainly after 2:00pm and fade after sunset. Risk of rain again, around 1 in 5 at any single location.
 
SUNDAY & SUNDAY: Weak disturbances may increase the number of isolated storms out there on Sunday and Monday afternoons. However, the risk of rain still looks relatively low – but slightly higher – at around 1 in 3. Afternoon highs in the low 90s, morning lows around 70.
 
Remember, that most of these pop-up thunderstorms occur between 2:00pm and 8:00pm. In MOST cases they only affect a single location for a very SHORT amount of time – typically 30 minutes to 1 hour at the MOST. So, bottom line – there is no need to cancel plans.


Jun
17.
: Posted: 9:56 am
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Category: Forecasts

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be numerous over North Alabama over the next couple of days, before rain chances diminish significantly by Wednesday & Thursday. There is some risk of very isolated thunderstorm activity mainly during the afternoon hours this upcoming weekend, but no significant weather systems will be affecting the area.
 
It is a dry start to this Monday morning over MOST of North Alabama – however some parts of Madison, Jackson, DeKalb, and Cherokee counties did experience morning thunderstorms. There is still a risk of a few isolated storms over NE Alabama through 1:00pm. Here is a visual look at the specific area:
 

 
After 12:00-1:00pm the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing over the ENTIRE area of North Alabama. Most of us stand a very good chance to see at least some rain. Even those who miss out today, or see very little – there is another very significant chance for rain tonight through Tuesday as a series of disturbances affects the area.
 
TUESDAY: Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible at any time, including the morning hours. Afternoon highs only in the upper 70s/low 80s due to the increased cloud-cover and showers/storms in the area.
 
STRONG STORMS? The risk of any strong to severe storms today or on Tuesday is rather low. However, a storm or two could briefly become strong or severe with strong wind gusts. However, even storms that are NOT severe will still produce an intense amount of lighting, along with torrential downpours.
 
WEDNESDAY: Drying out on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s.
 
THURSDAY & FRIDAY: Back into the lower 90s by Thursday and Friday afternoon. Morning lows 62-67.
 
THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny, hot and humid. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours but will only affect a few. Afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Morning lows 65-70.


Jun
13.
: Posted: 1:08 pm
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Category: Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch that includes much of North Alabama until 7:00pm tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front as it passes through North Alabama this evening.
 
Not everyone will necessarily see rain, but where thunderstorms do occur, they could become severe. The main threat with any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts, hail, and intense lightning.
 
Here is a look at the counties in North Alabama included in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch:
 


May
28.
: Posted: 10:27 pm
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Category: Forecasts

Very summer-like weather conditions this week across North Alabama. Warm and humid conditions will produce condtions favorable for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours each day through Saturday. A weak cool front will bring a higher number of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
 
As is typical with these summer-time “pop-up” afternoon showers and storms we expect each day through Saturday… they will not affect all communtiies and many will stay dry on any given day. Only expecting a small percentage of North Alabama to be affected each afternoon, only around 10-25% through Saturday. Where they do occur, they will produce a brief period of heavy downpours, lightning, but are unlikely to be severe.
 
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and hot condtions Wednesday afternoon with a high in the upper 80s to near 90. An isolated storm is possible Wednesday afternoon, evening – but will only affect a very small percentage of the area. About a 1 in 10 shot at rain.
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Hot and humid conditions continue through Saturday. Afternoon highs between 85-90. Isolated thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon/evening hours each day. Chance of rain at any one spot each day is only about 1 in 4. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN EACH DAY.
 
BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY: Rain chances increase considerably on Sunday, as a weak cool front moves through the area. However, it will still not be an all day rain. Best rain chances will be Sunday late afternoon/Sunday night.


Mar
05.
: Posted: 2:09 pm
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Category: Uncategorized

Showers and thunderstorms have affected North Alabama for much of the day, but they are gradually moving out of the area this afternoon. There were several reports of small hail across the area, especially in parts of Marion, Lawrence, Limestone, and Madison counties. Most of the hail was below “severe criteria” of 1.00″ in diameter.
 
Showers will taper off this evening, and much cooler air will invade North Alabama tonight, with lows overnight falling to around 30.
 
There may be enough residual moisture early Wednesday morning for a snow flurry, but it is unlikely, and will not be a big deal either way. Sky becomes mostly sunny on Wednesday with a high in the upper 40s to around 50.
 
WARMING TREND: Temperatures will be heading up through the weekend. Thursday & Friday will feature chilly mornings in the upper 20s/low 30s, but Thursday afternoon highs will reach the upper 50s, with low 60s on Friday.
 
The weekend looks great – both Saturday and Sunday, although clouds will be increasing by Sunday. Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s!
 
Next chance for rain comes Monday with cooler air arriving by the middle of next week.


Jan
29.
: Posted: 5:58 pm
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Category: Severe Weather

Still many hours away from thunderstorms reaching North Alabama, however watching very closely as the storm system develops to our west.
 
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that a Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, including parts of NE Louisiana, SE Arkansas, Western Mississippi.
 

 
Monitoring closely the developing thunderstorms currently over northern Louisiana. These could intensify as they lift north-northeastward into SE Arkansas, West Mississippi over the next couple of hours:
 

 
Check back for more updates!
 
For more frequent updates, be sure to follow @northalwx on Twitter!


Jan
29.
: Posted: 2:01 pm
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Category: Forecasts

It’s quiet across North Alabama this afternoon. A mostly cloudy, but warm day with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s. A few peeks of sunshine are possible this afternoon west of I-65. Low clouds have been hanging tough over areas east of I-65 in Northeast Alabama, holding temperatures near 60 so far today.
 
Little to no precipitation expected today or this evening, nothing more than a brief passing light shower. Temperatures through tonight will hold steady between 65-70 or so.
 
Below is the latest severe weather outlook (click for larger image) from the Storm Prediction Center:
 

 
Thunderstorms will approach NW Alabama after midnight, eventually spreading eastward over the rest of North Alabama into Wednesday morning. Here is the current thinking…
 
TIMING: Thunderstorms will move into NW Alabama after midnight (perhaps 1-3am) and will exit Northeast Alabama by around 10-11am Wednesday morning.
 
MAIN THREAT: The main threat with severe thunderstorms tonight will be strong damaging straight-line wind gusts – in excess of 70mph in some instances. There is also a tornado potential, especially if thunderstorms are able to form ahead of the squall line. The tornado potential is a little greater over North Mississippi and perhaps areas over extreme West Alabama near the Mississippi state line.
 
BOTTOM LINE: No, not everyone will see severe weather at their particular location – however, severe thunderstorms are a possibility over the entire area. The threat is a little greater west of I-65, and especially near the Mississippi state line. However, everyone should be aware and prepared for the RISK and have a way to receive the latest weather warnings issued overnight. Have a way to receive those warnings while you are sleeping. THIS IS NOT a day where we will see multiple tornadoes on the ground, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
 
Once the thunderstorms move out Wednesday morning, cooler air will filter into the area – temps falling into the 50s Wednesday afternoon, 40s by Wednesday evening. Winds will continue to be very gusty out of the northwest into Wednesday night.
 
Thursday and Friday will be sunny and cool with highs 45-50, morning lows 25-30.
 
THE WEEKEND: Small risk of a few light showers on Saturday, otherwise the weekend will be mainly dry with highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s.
 
For frequent updates on North Alabama Weather, follow @northalwx on Twitter!


Jan
28.

A southerly breeze will bring warmer, more moist air into North Alabama over the next 24-36 hours ahead of a developing storm system. This is a system we will be watching carefully over the next day or so as it will likely impact North Alabama with strong to severe thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
 
For now though, it is a quiet Monday across North Alabama. Quite a bit of cloud-cover, but very little precipitation – only a few spotty light sprinkles here and there. A few breaks in the clouds are allowing some peeks of sunshine in some areas, aiding temps in warming through the 60s. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s depending on how much sunshine you see at your particular location.
 
Things remain quiet into tonight and Tuesday – no thunderstorms, no severe weather yet. Temperatures tonight will not fall very much overnight due to a southerly wind bringing in warmer, moist air. Overnight lows in the mid 50s.
 
Tuesday will be warmer, with a few peeks of sunshine through the clouds at times. Any light rain showers/sprinkles will be brief. Most will reach the 70 degree mark with some mid 70s possible west of I-65.
 
Severe thunderstorms will begin to develop to our west on Tuesday over parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana… eventually moving into the Mississippi Delta region Tuesday night.
 
TIMING: Arrival of the severe storms, likely in the form of squall line is expected AFTER 2:00am Wednesday morning, and spread eastward across North Alabama during the morning hours on Wednesday. Exact timing is difficult to nail down at this point, but we will know more details concerning this tomorrow.
 
MAIN THREATS: This system will have plenty of wind energy to work with, and damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. However, there is still a tornado potential within the line or with any storms that develop ahead of the squall line. But again, the main threat will be damaging straight-line wind gusts. Storms will be very fast moving in excess of 50-60mph.
 
The system will exit the area by Wednesday afternoon – followed by a rush of much cooler air. There will be no further threat of severe weather.
 
Much cooler conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend as well with highs generally in the 40s, and lows generally in the 20s Thursday through Sunday.


Jan
24.
: Posted: 9:34 pm
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Category: Forecasts

Confidence increasing that precipitation will fall as mainly rain for areas west of I-65 on Friday morning. There is still the potential for a period of freezing rain east of I-65, especially in higher elevations of Jackson, Dekalb Counties.
 
There will be the potential for some slick spots on bridges/overpasses east of I-65, as well as some roadways in the higher elevations. So it will be a good idea to use caution when traveling early Friday, especially over Northeast Alabama.
 
However, even where freezing rain is occurring Friday morning – temperatures will warm ABOVE freezing by midday and this will end any ice issues.
 
Here is an updated map outlining the potential for freezing rain across North Alabama Friday morning:
 


Jan
24.
: Posted: 3:45 pm
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Category: Forecasts

Sun has returned to North Alabama on this Thursday afternoon, but a brisk north wind is making for chilly conditions with temps generally in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Despite the chilly conditions, it will be a pretty nice evening with a mostly sunny sky and dry conditions.
 
A developing storm system over the Southern Plains will move east tonight and bring a chance for rain and/or freezing rain to portions of North Alabama after midnight tonight into early Friday morning. Precipitation could begin as early as 2-3am over Northwest Alabama, around 6:00am for Northeast Alabama. The best chance for freezing rain exists EAST of I-65, especially over portions of Dekalb and Jackson counties.
 
Even where freezing rain and ice accumulations occur, temperatures are expected to warm ABOVE freezing by midday on Friday across North Alabama, ending the threat for icy conditions. For most of North Alabama though, temps will be above freezing much earlier than that.
 
For the Huntsville area westward, including all areas along/west of I-65, this is expected to be a very minor and short-term inconvenience at worst. Any ice accumulations here will only be on elevated surfaces such as trees.
 
BOTTOM LINE: For the majority of North Alabama, roadways will be just wet on Friday morning. Be cautious of slick spots on bridges/overpasses early Friday morning. However, Slick spots cannot be ruled out on roadways in NE Alabama including Dekalb and Jackson counties up until around noon.
 
Here is a map showing the BEST potential for freezing rain and ice accumulation Friday morning:
 

 
Below are some images of surface temperatures as forecast by one of many computer models for various times on Friday…
 
6AM Friday:
 

 
9AM Friday:
 

 
NOON Friday:
 

 
3PM Friday:
 

 
Computer models do not tend to handle shallow cold air (like we will see Friday) very well, so those temperatures could still be a couple of degrees too warm. However, temperatures will warm during the morning hours above freezing for all except extreme NE Alabama.
 
Rain will end Friday evening, and Friday night will be rather cold with overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 20s.
 
THE WEEKEND: The weekend looks mainly sunny and dry, there could be an increase in cloud-cover on Sunday but a warming trend will begin. Afternoon highs in the upper 40s to near 50 on Saturday, with mid 50s on Sunday afternoon. Morning lows 25-30.
 
A brief shower is possible on Monday as warmer, and more moist air begins to move into North Alabama from the south. Monday afternoon will be much warmer with highs in the low/mid 60s. A strong storm system will bring our next chance for rain and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday.



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